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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
STL@KC
St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Kansas City Royals · 7:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
STL
Predicted final score
STL 3.8 - KC 5.3
Sportsbook line
-105
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
50%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · STL +1.5 (-210)
Home no-vig implied moved from 53.3% to 51.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.033) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.035) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- KC · cold40% season win rate
- STL · neutral56% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- KCAvg 4.0 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)30-45
- STLAvg 4.5 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)40-32
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.51Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs