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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 1h agoMLB
STL@KC
St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Kansas City Royals · 7:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
STL
Predicted final score
STL 5 - KC 3.5
Sportsbook line
+100
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · STL -1.5 (+165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 53.3% to 52.2% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.038) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.018) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- KC · cold39% season win rate
- STL · neutral56% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- KCAvg 4.0 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)29-45
- STLAvg 4.6 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)40-31
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs