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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 17d agoMLB
ATH@DET
Athletics Athletics at Detroit Detroit Tigers · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
ATH
Predicted final score
ATH 3.5 - DET 5
Sportsbook line
+180
Implied probability
34%
from market price
Model probability
34%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ATH +1.5 (-120)
Home no-vig implied moved from 63.0% to 65.8% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.012) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.045) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- DET · neutral44% season win rate
- ATH · neutral46% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- DETAvg 4.2 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)40-50
- ATHAvg 4.6 scored · 5.4 allowed (season)41-49
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.33Historical comp+0.07
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs