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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 11h agoMLB
TOR@BOS
Toronto Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Boston Red Sox · 6:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
BOS
Predicted final score
TOR 4.5 - BOS 3
Sportsbook line
+104
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · BOS +1.5 (-167)
Home no-vig implied moved from 47.8% to 46.5% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.008) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.021) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- BOS · neutral42% season win rate
- TOR · neutral47% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- BOSAvg 4.0 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)29-40
- TORAvg 4.1 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)34-38
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs