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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
TOR@BOS
Toronto Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Boston Red Sox · 1:35 PM ET
Predicted winner
TOR
Predicted final score
TOR 4 - BOS 5.5
Sportsbook line
+121
Implied probability
43%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TOR +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.9% to 56.6% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.09). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.021) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.091) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.09). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- BOS · neutral41% season win rate
- TOR · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- BOSAvg 3.9 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)29-42
- TORAvg 4.1 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)36-38
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs