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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 16d agoMLB
NYY@TB
New York New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
NYY
Predicted final score
NYY 2.8 - TB 4.3
Sportsbook line
+100
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NYY +1.5 (-210)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.4% to 52.2% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.014) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.004) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TB · neutral60% season win rate
- NYY · neutral55% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TBAvg 4.5 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)53-36
- NYYAvg 4.8 scored · 3.9 allowed (season)50-41
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs