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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 21d agoMLB
PIT@WSH
Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Washington Nationals · 6:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
PIT
Predicted final score
PIT 4.3 - WSH 5.8
Sportsbook line
+120
Implied probability
43%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · PIT +1.5 (-170)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.1% to 56.6% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.002) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.024) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- WSH · neutral51% season win rate
- PIT · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- WSHAvg 5.3 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)45-43
- PITAvg 5.1 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)44-44
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs