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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 31d agoMLB
SEA@PIT
Seattle Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pirates · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
PIT
Predicted final score
SEA 5.3 - PIT 3.8
Sportsbook line
+113
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · PIT +1.5 (-145)
Home no-vig implied moved from 47.1% to 45.0% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.008) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.035) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- PIT · neutral50% season win rate
- SEA · neutral51% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- PITAvg 5.0 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)39-39
- SEAAvg 4.1 scored · 3.9 allowed (season)40-39
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.89Historical comp+0.05
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.92Historical comp-0.05
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs