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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 17d agoMLB
PHI@CIN
Philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Cincinnati Reds · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
CIN
Predicted final score
PHI 5.3 - CIN 3.8
Sportsbook line
+146
Implied probability
39%
from market price
Model probability
39%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CIN +1.5 (-115)
Home no-vig implied moved from 39.7% to 39.5% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.007) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.003) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CIN · neutral46% season win rate
- PHI · neutral55% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CINAvg 4.2 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)41-48
- PHIAvg 4.4 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)50-41
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs