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Yesterday
Updated 20d agoMLB
TOR@SEA
Toronto Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Seattle Mariners · 4:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
TOR
Predicted final score
TOR 3 - SEA 4.5
Sportsbook line
+139
Implied probability
41%
from market price
Model probability
40%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TOR +1.5 (-160)
Home no-vig implied moved from 59.3% to 59.3% (toward away). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.003) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.019) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SEA · neutral51% season win rate
- TOR · neutral48% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SEAAvg 4.0 scored · 3.9 allowed (season)45-44
- TORAvg 4.0 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)42-46
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.48Historical comp+0.02
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs