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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 26d agoMLB
SEA@CLE
Seattle Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Cleveland Guardians · 1:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
SEA
Predicted final score
SEA 3 - CLE 4.5
Sportsbook line
+106
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SEA +1.5 (-210)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.0% to 53.5% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.003) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.055) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CLE · neutral51% season win rate
- SEA · neutral51% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CLEAvg 3.9 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)42-40
- SEAAvg 4.0 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)42-41
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs