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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 21d agoMLB
MIA@ATH
Miami Miami Marlins at Athletics Athletics · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIA
Predicted final score
MIA 4.5 - ATH 6
Sportsbook line
+120
Implied probability
43%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIA +1.5 (-165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 54.3% to 56.6% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.013) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.037) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATH · neutral47% season win rate
- MIA · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATHAvg 4.6 scored · 5.3 allowed (season)41-46
- MIAAvg 4.4 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)46-42
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs