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FreshLine moved
Updated 41m agoMLB
CHW@NYY
Chicago Chicago White Sox at New York New York Yankees · 7:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHW
Predicted final score
CHW 3.5 - NYY 5
Sportsbook line
+155
Implied probability
38%
from market price
Model probability
37%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHW +1.5 (-130)
Home no-vig implied moved from 60.7% to 62.5% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.013) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.029) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYY · hot62% season win rate
- CHW · neutral54% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYYAvg 5.2 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)44-27
- CHWAvg 4.7 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)38-33
Historical trends
- [home] Net rating gap 1.62Historical comp+0.04
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.13Historical comp+0.06
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs