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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 22d agoMLB
STL@ATL
St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Atlanta Braves · 7:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
STL
Predicted final score
STL 3.8 - ATL 5.3
Sportsbook line
-101
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · STL +1.5 (-210)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.9% to 52.0% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.018) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.017) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATL · neutral60% season win rate
- STL · neutral53% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATLAvg 4.7 scored · 3.7 allowed (season)50-34
- STLAvg 4.4 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)44-39
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.89Historical comp+0.04
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs