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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 11h agoMLB
CHW@NYY
Chicago Chicago White Sox at New York New York Yankees · 7:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHW
Predicted final score
CHW 3.3 - NYY 4.8
Sportsbook line
+130
Implied probability
42%
from market price
Model probability
41%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHW +1.5 (-170)
Home no-vig implied moved from 56.7% to 58.3% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.014) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.025) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYY · hot61% season win rate
- CHW · neutral54% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYYAvg 5.1 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)43-27
- CHWAvg 4.8 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)38-32
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.00Historical comp+0.05
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs