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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 26d agoMLB
ATH@LAA
Athletics Athletics at Los Angeles Los Angeles Angels · 3:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
ATH
Predicted final score
ATH 5.5 - LAA 4
Sportsbook line
-107
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ATH -1.5 (+150)
Home no-vig implied moved from 48.0% to 51.1% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.015) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.049) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAA · neutral41% season win rate
- ATH · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LAAAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)34-49
- ATHAvg 4.7 scored · 5.3 allowed (season)40-42
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs