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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 2h agoNFL
ARI@LAC
Arizona Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Los Angeles Chargers · 4:25 PM ET
Predicted winner
ARI
Predicted final score
ARI 17.3 - LAC 28.8
Sportsbook line
+446
Implied probability
18%
from market price
Model probability
19%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ARI +11.5 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 82.7% to 82.4% (toward away). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.024) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.026) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAC · neutral50% season win rate
- ARI · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LACNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
- ARINo recent stats ingested yetNo data
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs