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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 19d agoMLB
STL@CHC
St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Chicago Cubs · 2:30 PM ET
Predicted winner
STL
Predicted final score
STL 3.3 - CHC 4.8
Sportsbook line
+125
Implied probability
42%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · STL +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 58.3% to 58.0% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.002) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.004) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CHC · neutral55% season win rate
- STL · neutral55% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CHCAvg 5.0 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)49-40
- STLAvg 4.6 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)47-39
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs