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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 30d agoMLB
CHC@NYM
Chicago Chicago Cubs at New York New York Mets · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
NYM
Predicted final score
CHC 4.8 - NYM 3.3
Sportsbook line
-106
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NYM +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.0% to 49.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.016) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.014) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYM · neutral44% season win rate
- CHC · neutral53% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYMAvg 4.1 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)34-44
- CHCAvg 4.8 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)41-37
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.74Historical comp-0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs