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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 24d agoMLB
DET@NYY
Detroit Detroit Tigers at New York New York Yankees · 7:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
DET
Predicted final score
DET 2.8 - NYY 4.3
Sportsbook line
-108
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
50%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · DET +1.5 (-235)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.3% to 50.4% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.039) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.078) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYY · neutral57% season win rate
- DET · neutral42% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYYAvg 4.9 scored · 3.8 allowed (season)48-36
- DETAvg 4.1 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)36-49
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs