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FreshLine moved
Updated 38m agoMLB
SF@ATL
San Francisco San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Atlanta Braves · 7:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
SF
Predicted final score
SF 3.8 - ATL 5.3
Sportsbook line
+120
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
-2 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SF +1.5 (-170)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.8% to 56.4% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.057) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.031) - against pick
- market value (+0.019) - against pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATL · hot65% season win rate
- SF · neutral40% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATLAvg 5.1 scored · 3.5 allowed (season)46-25
- SFAvg 4.1 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)29-43
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.95Historical comp+0.06
- [home] Net rating gap 2.28Historical comp+0.06
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.34Historical comp+0.07
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs