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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 27d agoMLB
NYY@BOS
New York New York Yankees at Boston Boston Red Sox · 1:00 PM ET
Predicted winner
NYY
Predicted final score
NYY 3.3 - BOS 4.8
Sportsbook line
+118
Implied probability
43%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
-2 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NYY +1.5 (-186)
Home no-vig implied moved from 47.6% to 56.5% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.14). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.043) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.143) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.14). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- BOS · neutral43% season win rate
- NYY · neutral59% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- BOSAvg 4.0 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)34-46
- NYYAvg 5.0 scored · 3.7 allowed (season)48-33
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -1.00Historical comp-0.06
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs