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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 2h agoNFL
NO@DET
New Orleans New Orleans Saints at Detroit Detroit Lions · 1:00 PM ET
Predicted winner
NO
Predicted final score
NO 21 - DET 28
Sportsbook line
+260
Implied probability
26%
from market price
Model probability
27%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NO +7 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 73.4% to 73.7% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.022) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.005) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- DET · neutral50% season win rate
- NO · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- DETNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
- NONo recent stats ingested yetNo data
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs