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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 22d agoMLB
SD@LAD
San Diego San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers · 10:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
SD
Predicted final score
SD 3.8 - LAD 5.3
Sportsbook line
+162
Implied probability
37%
from market price
Model probability
36%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SD +1.5 (-121)
Home no-vig implied moved from 63.9% to 63.3% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.025) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.009) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAD · hot64% season win rate
- SD · neutral51% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LADAvg 5.3 scored · 3.5 allowed (season)56-31
- SDAvg 3.9 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)43-42
Historical trends
- [home] Home PPG 5.3 vs avg 4.6Historical comp+0.01
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 1.39Historical comp+0.08
- [home] Net rating gap 2.23Historical comp+0.06
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.84Historical comp+0.04
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs