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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
SD@STL
San Diego San Diego Padres at St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals · 2:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
SD
Predicted final score
SD 4.5 - STL 6
Sportsbook line
+112
Implied probability
46%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SD +1.5 (-175)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.4% to 53.9% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.013) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.024) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- STL · neutral56% season win rate
- SD · neutral51% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- STLAvg 4.6 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)40-31
- SDAvg 3.8 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)37-35
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.77Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs