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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 19d agoMLB
MIL@ARI
Milwaukee Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks · 4:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
ARI
Predicted final score
MIL 5.3 - ARI 3.8
Sportsbook line
+100
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ARI +1.5 (-165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 46.8% to 47.5% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.021) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.011) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ARI · neutral50% season win rate
- MIL · hot62% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ARIAvg 4.3 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)44-44
- MILAvg 5.1 scored · 3.7 allowed (season)54-33
Historical trends
- [away] Net rating gap -1.77Historical comp-0.05
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.87Historical comp-0.05
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.90Historical comp-0.05
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs