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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
MIN@ARI
Minnesota Minnesota Twins at Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks · 9:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIN
Predicted final score
MIN 3.5 - ARI 5
Sportsbook line
+144
Implied probability
39%
from market price
Model probability
39%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIN +1.5 (-145)
Home no-vig implied moved from 60.7% to 60.6% (toward away). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.005) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.018) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ARI · neutral51% season win rate
- MIN · neutral47% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ARIAvg 4.2 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)38-36
- MINAvg 4.8 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)36-40
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.56Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.62Historical comp+0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs