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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 3d agoMLB
CHC@SF
Chicago Chicago Cubs at San Francisco San Francisco Giants · 10:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
SF
Predicted final score
CHC 4.8 - SF 3.3
Sportsbook line
+106
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SF +1.5 (-165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 46.3% to 47.5% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.020) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.019) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SF · cold40% season win rate
- CHC · neutral51% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SFAvg 4.1 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)28-42
- CHCAvg 4.6 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)36-34
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.44Historical comp-0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs