Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
BAL@SEA
Baltimore Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Seattle Mariners · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
BAL
Predicted final score
BAL 3 - SEA 4.5
Sportsbook line
+114
Implied probability
46%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · BAL +1.5 (-190)
Home no-vig implied moved from 54.7% to 54.3% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.014) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.006) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SEA · neutral51% season win rate
- BAL · neutral46% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SEAAvg 4.2 scored · 3.9 allowed (season)38-36
- BALAvg 4.6 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)34-40
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.18Historical comp+0.06
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs