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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 15d agoMLB
SEA@MIA
Seattle Seattle Mariners at Miami Miami Marlins · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIA
Predicted final score
SEA 4.8 - MIA 3.3
Sportsbook line
+125
Implied probability
43%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIA +1.5 (-135)
Home no-vig implied moved from 43.7% to 42.6% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.022) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.017) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIA · neutral55% season win rate
- SEA · neutral51% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MIAAvg 4.6 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)51-42
- SEAAvg 4.1 scored · 3.8 allowed (season)47-46
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.49Historical comp-0.02
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.53Historical comp+0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs