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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 25d agoMLB
MIN@HOU
Minnesota Minnesota Twins at Houston Houston Astros · 8:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIN
Predicted final score
MIN 3.8 - HOU 5.3
Sportsbook line
+116
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIN +1.5 (-185)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.8% to 55.5% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.004) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.006) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- HOU · neutral49% season win rate
- MIN · neutral47% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- HOUAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)42-44
- MINAvg 4.8 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)40-45
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs