Back to dashboard
Yesterday
Updated 1d agoMLB
PIT@ATH
Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pirates at Athletics Athletics · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
PIT
Predicted final score
PIT 4.3 - ATH 5.8
Sportsbook line
+104
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · PIT +1.5 (-176)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.9% to 52.9% (flat).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (0.000) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (0.000) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATH · neutral49% season win rate
- PIT · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATHAvg 4.5 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)35-36
- PITAvg 5.0 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)36-36
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.43Historical comp-0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs