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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2d agoMLB
SD@BAL
San Diego San Diego Padres at Baltimore Baltimore Orioles · 1:35 PM ET
Predicted winner
SD
Predicted final score
SD 4.5 - BAL 6
Sportsbook line
+120
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SD +1.5 (-165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 53.3% to 56.4% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.013) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.050) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- BAL · neutral47% season win rate
- SD · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- BALAvg 4.7 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)34-38
- SDAvg 3.9 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)36-33
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -1.09Historical comp-0.05
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.87Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs