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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 16d agoMLB
MIL@STL
Milwaukee Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals · 7:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
STL
Predicted final score
MIL 4.8 - STL 3.3
Sportsbook line
+120
Implied probability
43%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · STL +1.5 (-148)
Home no-vig implied moved from 43.7% to 43.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.016) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.009) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- STL · neutral52% season win rate
- MIL · hot64% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- STLAvg 4.6 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)47-43
- MILAvg 5.1 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)58-33
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.57Historical comp-0.03
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.91Historical comp-0.05
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs